Laws of Leadership: Hofstadter's Law

Source: xkcd.com

New tasks with unknowns over-run estimates no matter how much buffer you build-in.

Hofstadter's Law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."

This law really highlights the risk of running any task outside the control of a clear process.

To be clear, in a well-designed, trained, and controlled process you will find tasks are repeatable and predictable.

When you design process, you design every step to minimize errors and effort required. When you know exactly what will be done, and how, you can accurately predict, repeat, and control how long it'll take.

However, when you embark on a task with unknowns (or allow variation in the way a process is performed), there is a likelihood of delays/errors/injuries/etc for all of the uncontrolled and unknown issues. And all of that creates delay.

More unknowns manifest, in practice, as more variation, cost, headache, and delay.

When leading change, the temptation is to set optimistic deadlines based on best-case scenarios, assuming everything will go as you imagine it should.

Hofstadter's Law reminds us that unknowns and their inherent complexity inevitably extend timelines, so we need to plan for delays in areas where there are unknowns to keep initiatives on track.

Also, when you embark on a project with substantial unknowns stay close to it and expect problems. Robust contingency planning is wise. Build in flexibility and responsiveness. Seek help with unknowns early.

You can create a lot of burnout, cost, and error trying to cram work into underestimated schedules, it leads to injuries, rushed quality and team exhaustion.

And realize that even seasoned leaders fall for this; successful projects aren't rushed, they’re padded for reality.

Leading change is hard. Understanding Hofstadter's Law helps us build resilient timelines, which we need.

Change leadership is a marathon. Lead with process to beat Hofstadter's Law. If you eliminate the unknowns, you eliminate almost all the problems.